diff --git a/app/models/goal.rb b/app/models/goal.rb
index daea1e73f..72b470cd9 100644
--- a/app/models/goal.rb
+++ b/app/models/goal.rb
@@ -281,13 +281,17 @@ class Goal < ApplicationRecord
       end
   end
 
-  # Monthly extra needed beyond the current pace to hit the target on time.
-  # Clamps at zero — never asks the user to "make up" a deficit they're
-  # already ahead of.
+  # Monthly extra needed beyond the current pace + currently-open pledges
+  # to hit the target on time. Pending pledges are approximate (one-off
+  # amounts treated as this-month inflow) but excluding them produced the
+  # bad case where the alert demanded $X/mo while the user had already
+  # pledged $X — telling them to act on top of the action they just took.
+  # Clamps at zero so a fully-covered goal doesn't surface a $0 demand.
   def catch_up_delta_money
     return Money.new(0, currency) if monthly_target_amount.nil?
 
-    delta = [ monthly_target_amount.to_d - pace.to_d, 0 ].max
+    pending = open_pledges.to_a.sum { |p| p.amount.to_d }
+    delta = [ monthly_target_amount.to_d - pace.to_d - pending, 0 ].max
     Money.new(delta, currency)
   end
 
diff --git a/app/views/goals/show.html.erb b/app/views/goals/show.html.erb
index 0e3e80cc8..602f546d8 100644
--- a/app/views/goals/show.html.erb
+++ b/app/views/goals/show.html.erb
@@ -139,11 +139,13 @@
         </div>
       <% end %>
     <% end %>
-  <% elsif @goal.status == :behind && @goal.monthly_target_amount %>
+  <% elsif @goal.status == :behind && @goal.monthly_target_amount && @goal.catch_up_delta_money.amount.positive? %>
     <%# Title uses the *delta* — the amount the user must add to current pace
-        to make the date. The body carries the absolute numbers. Pre-fill the
+        to make the date, *after* subtracting open pledges. When pending
+        pledges already cover the gap, `catch_up_delta_money` returns zero
+        and this branch suppresses — no "Save $0/mo" demand. Pre-fill the
         pledge CTA with the delta too, so submitting once funds the gap
-        instead of double-counting on top of the existing pace. %>
+        instead of double-counting on top of pace and pending. %>
     <%= render DS::Alert.new(variant: "warning", title: t("goals.show.catch_up.title", amount: @goal.catch_up_delta_money.format(precision: 0))) do %>
       <p class="text-secondary">
         <%= t("goals.show.catch_up.body", avg: @goal.pace_money.format(precision: 0), required: Money.new(@goal.monthly_target_amount, @goal.currency).format(precision: 0)) %>